Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 184.400449 218.378678 258.721642 310.682429 376.604846 458.511052 5.696669e+02
2025-10-05 150.039138 193.265553 250.587087 334.158534 456.414226 634.712229 9.265534e+02
2025-10-12 128.709637 176.168361 244.457282 354.032616 534.016229 835.414677 1.422500e+03
2025-10-19 113.160930 162.343128 237.817915 368.786215 606.214218 1056.240707 2.092116e+03
2025-10-26 100.527221 149.754883 229.358354 376.845496 668.103118 1285.857051 2.957491e+03
2025-11-02 89.830590 138.017888 219.398311 378.819447 718.180975 1515.884844 4.042675e+03
2025-11-09 79.813531 125.663336 205.833644 370.193594 742.782808 1700.473678 5.208579e+03
2025-11-16 71.646658 115.222845 193.768572 361.449868 763.973826 1889.404788 6.654122e+03
2025-11-23 64.763477 106.090130 182.589206 351.884018 779.963943 2074.913836 8.402330e+03
2025-11-30 62.886844 105.720107 188.056781 379.983161 904.078141 2693.403495 1.377531e+04
2025-12-07 58.867565 100.801903 183.620176 384.124273 964.082022 3140.082236 1.961995e+04
2025-12-14 55.867332 97.458137 181.887429 394.445067 1047.789006 3766.286859 2.993652e+04
2025-12-21 51.950652 92.033558 175.292769 391.970953 1093.977109 4299.649256 4.337493e+04
2025-12-28 50.972564 92.408689 181.514506 425.507918 1284.298992 5855.967121 9.249588e+04
2026-01-04 49.553029 91.683978 185.125634 453.087774 1472.323239 7789.700029 2.095126e+05
2026-01-11 47.772072 89.966865 186.115930 473.427159 1646.793876 10075.848182 5.097773e+05
2026-01-18 45.646358 87.251140 184.250418 484.532162 1790.149504 12547.956086 1.325638e+06
2026-01-25 43.314575 83.826515 180.108259 487.255704 1897.404103 15065.243814 3.780128e+06
2026-02-01 40.559457 79.179163 172.212408 475.403280 1923.309865 16781.804852 9.826603e+06
2026-02-08 38.057993 74.891604 164.735942 463.411863 1943.805232 18603.874725 3.283694e+07
2026-02-15 35.743003 70.836703 157.393784 450.321383 1952.194095 20385.995208 1.619800e+08
2026-02-22 35.556730 71.742539 163.551801 488.859694 2312.323357 30847.076774 NaN
2026-03-01 34.183817 69.687363 161.251459 494.560892 2466.143919 38589.386650 NaN